GFS Market Update

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following morning news from Iran that may be a sign they are willing to make a major concession regarding their nuclear program. Stocks erased overnight losses in futures to stand mixed this morning. The Dow is still down but only by 241 points while the Nasdaq is up 56 points. All of the major stock indexes looked like they were going to open much lower last night than they actually did this morning. The bond market has erased early morning losses also, currently up 5/32 (4.31%). However, weakness before closing Friday is going to cause an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point.

This morning’s sole relevant economic release was related to the housing sector. The National Association of Realtors announced late this morning that home resales in the U.S. fell 3.6% last month, likely a result of labor market concerns and the spike in mortgage rates. We can label the report favorable for bonds and mortgage rates because a softening housing sector makes broader economic growth much more difficult and bonds become more appealing to investors in times of weaker economic activity.

The remainder of the week has only two more monthly reports set for release. In addition to those two releases, there also is a periodic Fed update coming during afternoon trading midweek and a slew of Fed-member speaking engagements that we will be watching. Corporate earnings season also starts this week with mostly banking names announcing results, but they should influence stocks trading much more than bonds and mortgage rates. And of course, headlines from the Middle East certainly will come into play throughout the week.

March’s Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow morning. It will give us inflation readings at the wholesale level of the economy. Rising wholesale costs often trickle down to consumers, making this data highly important to the markets. Analysts are expecting to see a 1.1% jump in the overall reading and a 0.4% rise in the more influential core reading that excludes volatile food and energy costs. The predicted large spike in overall wholesale inflation is due to the Iran war and high oil prices that came as a result of it. Weaker than expected readings would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

In addition to the data, there is plenty of Fed talk to listen to this week. With at least one speaking event scheduled each day this week we could see something relevant said at any time. None of the speeches are expected to draw a strong response since their topics don’t appear to be directly related to monetary policy or the economy. The one that stands out as most likely to affect rates comes Friday morning.

Overall, the most active day for rates will probably be tomorrow, especially if the inflation data shows any surprises. The calmest day may be Friday unless something unexpected happens. Despite a relatively small number of economic reports being posted, this week still is expected to be quite volatile for the financial and mortgage markets. Therefore, please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.