Friday Jul. 10, 2026
GFS Market Update
Daily rate commentary
Within 7
8-20 Days
21-60 Days
Over 60 Days
Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following mixed economic data and no new major headlines from the Middle East.
Bonds are down, which means rates are slightly higher (bonds down 1/32)
•• What we're watching this week:
- Fed speeches this week
- 10-year Treasury auction
- Economic data releases
Lock guidance:
Closing within 30 days -> locking makes sense
Longer timelines -> floating still reasonable
More updates as markets move.
Friday’s bond market has opened relatively flat with little to drive trading today. Stocks are calm with the Dow up 76 points and the Nasdaq up 2 points. The bond market is currently down 1/32 (4.55%), which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates close to Thursday’s early pricing.
Yesterday’s 30-year Treasury Bond auction followed suit of Wednesday’s 10-year sale by drawing a decent demand from investors, particularly international buyers. This was good news for rates because mortgages are priced on long-term securities. Bonds had slowly but steadily improved during late morning into midday trading yesterday before getting a noticeable boost by the 1:00 PM ET auction results announcement.
There is nothing of importance scheduled for today, leaving us little to be concerned or optimistic about in terms of mortgage pricing. Unless some unexpected hits the wires, we are expecting rates to remain calm as the week comes to an end. The most likely cause of an intraday move would be headlines coming from the Middle East, but today so far seems quiet on that front.
Next week is packed with important economic data and other scheduled events that are likely to influence mortgage rates. The data includes two highly important inflation indexes and a key report on consumer spending. In addition to a few Fed speeches that look to be related to the economy and/or monetary policy, we also have two days of semi-annual congressional testimony with Chairman Warsh. All of the important events come Tuesday through Thursday, meaning we should see the biggest move in rates midweek. There is no relevant data scheduled for Monday, but Fed Governor Waller has a lunchtime speech in New York that has a topic listed as Economic Outlook. We can also expect any significant headlines from the Middle East this weekend to affect bond trading and mortgage pricing Monday. Look for details on all of next week’s activities in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.