RSM Market Update

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory due mostly to Iran headlines with contribution from this morning’s economic data. Stocks are mixed as the Dow reacts to the same news that President Trump has indicated a final peace plan with Iran is near and the Nasdaq responding to disappointing earnings news. The Dow is now up 787 points while the Nasdaq has lost 262 points. The bond market is currently up 11/32 (4.45%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Yesterday afternoon’s release of the Fed Beige Book certainly didn’t contain anything that we can label as good news for the bond market or mortgage rates. The overwhelming message was that higher prices and inflation concerns are causing alarm for both businesses and consumers. Direct impacts of the Iran war are causing both to alter spending plans. It did indicate that the strain is much more apparent in the budgets of the middle and lower classes and not so much for the wealthy. Rising costs and broad inflation in the economy makes bonds less appealing to investors and becomes troublesome for mortgage rates. Fortunately, we didn’t see much of a reaction to the 2:00 PM ET release yesterday since what it showed came as no surprise. That said, the report has to be considered unfavorable for bonds and mortgage pricing.

Last week’s unemployment figures that were posted early this morning revealed 225,000 new claims for jobless benefits were made. This was noticeably higher than the 213,000 initial filings that were expected and an increase from the previous week’s revised 212,000 new claims. Rising claims are a sign of a weakening employment sector. Therefore, this weekly update is good news for mortgage rates.

Revised 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data were also posted early this morning. They showed worker output was softer than previously thought at up 0.3% compared to the 0.8% that was expected. Weaker productivity numbers are negative for bonds and mortgage rates because strong output per hour worked allows for non-inflationary economic growth. However, a secondary reading related to labor costs and wage inflation was also revised lower. This portion of the report is good news for rates.

This week's economic calendar will come to an end at 8:30 AM tomorrow morning when May's governmental Employment report is posted. This extremely important data will give us key employment readings such as the U.S. unemployment rate, the number of jobs added or lost during the month and average earnings change. Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate hold at April's 4.3% for May with approximately 85,000 jobs added during the month and a 0.3% increase in earnings. A higher than expected unemployment rate and a much smaller increase in payrolls would be favorable news for mortgage rates. Bonds are particularly sensitive to the earnings increase also, meaning the smaller the rise in that number, the better the news for rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.