RSM Market Update

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory due to war news from the Middle East. Stocks are shrugging off the geopolitical news to recover some of Friday’s heavy losses. The Dow and Nasdaq are up 218 points and 240 points respectively. The bond market is currently down 5/32 (4.54%), which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates close to Friday’s early pricing.

There is no relevant economic news today, but headlines from the Middle East are causing this morning’s negative open in bonds. Weekend news that Iran fired missiles into Israel and last night’s Israeli response has many analysts questioning whether the peace negotiations can actually put an end to the conflict, at least in the immediate future. It certainly raises concerns that the current ceasefire will hold. This has oil prices higher and inflation fears again at the forefront of bond traders’ thought process.

We have plenty scheduled this week that may affect mortgage rates, in addition to Iran-related news. The week has four monthly economic reports, two of which are considered to be highly important. There are also a couple of Treasury auctions that may come into play during afternoon trading midweek. It is very likely that we will see plenty of movement in rates the middle days, but could see a noticeable move in pricing multiple days.

Economic reports begin tomorrow with the release of May's Existing Home Sales at 10:00 AM ET. The National Association of Realtors is expected to say home resales rose a little last month, pointing to gains in the housing sector. This is not one of the more important monthly reports, but it does draw some attention, especially if there is a large increase or decline in sales. A weakening housing sector makes broader economic growth more difficult, meaning good news for bonds and mortgage rates tomorrow would be a decline in sales.

Overall, Wednesday is the most important day of the week for rates due to the significance the consumer inflation data carries in the markets, followed by the afternoon auction results. The calmest day will likely be tomorrow unless something unexpected happens. Because of the Fed's mandatory two-week quiet period ahead next week's FOMC meeting, we won't have Fed speeches to fill the gaps in this week's calendar. What is being released this week definitely has the potential to cause a big swing in the markets. Therefore, it would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.