RSM Market Update

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite no major headlines to drive trading. Stocks are also showing early losses, pushing the Dow lower by 74 points and the Nasdaq down 404 points. The bond market is currently down 11/32 (4.51%), which should cause an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.

There is no domestic economic data being released today that traditionally affects bond trading and/or mortgage pricing. We saw bonds lose ground during overnight trading in the international markets and continued that trend into this morning’s session. Hence, this morning’s negative open and higher mortgage rates.

Tomorrow also fails to give us any relevant economic data, but there are two afternoon events that may affect mortgage rates. First up will be the 10-year Treasury Note auction results at 1:00 PM ET. This sale will give us an indication of investor interest in long-term securities, which is relevant to mortgage rates because rates are based on long-term debt also. Good news for rates will be the results showing a strong demand from investors, particularly international buyers. On the other hand, a lackluster interest in the securities could lead to an upward revision in rates tomorrow afternoon.

We will also get the minutes from the June 16-17 FOMC meeting at 2:00 PM ET tomorrow. There is a possibility of the markets reacting to them, but I don't believe they will reveal a significant surprise that we did not get from the post-meeting statement, revised economic projections and press conference last month. Bond traders are looking for feelings about the direction of inflation and individual member thoughts about the Fed's next monetary policy move. There is much debate about whether the Fed will need to raise key short-term interest rates before they lower them again. Any information that helps form a consensus either way will likely draw a reaction in the markets tomorrow afternoon.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.