Tuesday Sep. 22, 2026
GFS Market Update
Daily rate commentary
Within 7
8-20 Days
21-60 Days
Over 60 Days
Markets are relatively flat today as traders await key data.
Bonds are down, which means rates are slightly higher (bonds down 18/32)
•• What we're watching this week:
- Middle East / oil headlines
- Treasury auctions
- Economic data releases
Lock guidance:
Closing within 30 days -> locking makes sense
Longer timelines -> floating still reasonable
More updates as markets move.
Tuesday’s bond market has opened flat with little in terms of news to drive trading in either direction. Stocks are also fairly calm with the Dow down 86 points and the Nasdaq up 95 points. The bond market is currently unchanged from yesterday’s close (4.95%), but a bit of afternoon strength late yesterday should allow for an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point.
There is no economic data or other headlines influencing this morning’s bond trading, at least so far. President Trump will be addressing the U.N. in New York shortly. We aren’t expecting anything specifically relevant to rates to come from his speech, but there is always a possibility that this could happen. It seems that comments about Iran and the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz are the likely topics to draw a reaction from bond traders.
Tomorrow also lacks any economic releases that have the potential to influence mortgage rates, but we do have the first of this week’s two Treasury auctions that may have a minor impact on them. 5-year Treasury Notes are being sold tomorrow with 7-year Notes going Thursday. These sales will tell us if there is an appetite in the markets for medium-term securities. If the 1:00 PM ET results announcement indicates investor demand was strong, particularly from international buyers, the broader bond market could move a bit higher, pushing mortgage rates slightly lower tomorrow afternoon. But a lackluster interest from investors could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage pricing. This scenario is the same for Thursday’s auction also.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.