RSM Market Update

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory to start the new week with an increase in rates. Stocks are showing early gains with the Dow up 240 points and the Nasdaq up 31 points. The bond market is currently down 12/32 (4.50%), which with late selling Thursday should cause this morning’s mortgage rates to be higher by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point. The financial markets were closed Friday in observance of the Juneteenth holiday.

There is no relevant data set for release today or tomorrow, leaving geopolitical headlines to drive trading for now. We are seeing the markets react to news from the extended weekend that Iran is planning on keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed due to fighting in Lebanon, despite the signed peace deal. Oil prices are still lower, but the threat that Iran will continue to prevent ships from passing through the strait has some bond traders on edge this morning.

The rest of this week brings us five monthly and quarterly economic reports that may influence mortgage rates, two of which are considered to be of more importance to the financial and mortgage markets than the others. In addition to the data there are also a couple of Treasury auctions that may affect rates during afternoon trading midweek. We will also be watching for new headlines regarding Iran and the status of the Strait of Hormuz (if shipping is moving through it).

We will also start seeing public speaking engagements from Fed members since the FOMC meeting is now behind us. None of them particularly stand out as likely to move the markets or mortgage pricing this week, but any of them can do so. Most of these speeches have mundane topics related to banking rules and technology that draw little attention. Market participants are looking for individual member thoughts about inflation and the likelihood of the Fed making a rate hike before lowering them again. Any speech or public discussion that addresses that topic could affect the financial markets and mortgage rates. Generally speaking, the Fed raising key short-term rates is bad news for bonds and should cause an increase in mortgage rates.

Overall, Thursday appears to be the most important day for rates because of the batch of data that day, including the highly important PCE inflation readings in the Personal Income and Outlays report. Tomorrow could be the calmest day, assuming nothing unexpected happens. With so much scheduled this week and the possible addition of Middle East headlines on top of it, it would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.