RSM Market Update

Friday’s bond market has opened well in negative territory following stronger than expected economic data. Stocks are in selling mode also despite that data, pushing the Dow lower by 123 points and the Nasdaq down 465 points. The bond market is currently down 15/32 (4.53%), which should cause an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of somewhere between .375 and .625 of a discount point if compared to Thursday’s early pricing.

Today’s big economic news was the release of May’s governmental Employment report at 8:30 AM ET. It revealed the employment sector was stronger than thought with a surprisingly high 172,000 new job number, greatly exceeding the 85,000 or so that was expected. Furthermore, upward revisions to April and March of 64,000 and 29,000 respectively adds 93,000 more jobs year to date than previously thought. It is worth noting that this was the fourth month of over 100,000 jobs added during the past five months. These numbers make it hard to say the employment sector is stumbling, which in itself is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, they also undermine the theory that the Fed needs to lower key short-term interest rates to support employment. In other words, reports like this make it more likely that we will get a Fed rate increase to help bring inflation down before we see another rate cut.

The other headline numbers in the report showed no surprises. The unemployment rate held at April’s 4.3% as expected and average hourly earnings pegged forecasts of a 0.3% monthly increase. Still, it is the payroll numbers that are driving this morning’s bond weakness and increase in mortgage pricing. Bonds were actually in positive ground before the Employment report was posted.

Next week brings us more highly important economic data with the release of two key inflation readings midweek. There are also a couple of long-term Treasury auctions that may affect rates during afternoon trading those same days. The other remaining scheduled reports are considered to only be moderately important and aren’t likely to cause a noticeable move in rates. It starts light with nothing of importance set for Monday, leaving weekend headlines to drive trading early in the week. Look for details on all of next week’s activities in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.