GFS Market Update

Thursday’s bond market has opened fairly flat to erase overnight losses. Stocks are showing early weakness with the Dow down 454 points and the Nasdaq down 215 points. The bond market is currently up 1/32 (4.31%), which should allow this morning’s mortgage rates to be approximately .125 of a discount point lower than Wednesday’s early pricing.

Last week’s unemployment update was today’s only relevant economic release. The 8:30 AM ET posting showed new claims for jobless benefits fell to 202,000 last week when they were expected to rise to 213,000. The previous week was revised from 210,000 to 211,000 initial filings. The week over week decline is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because it signals the employment sector strengthened last week. Fortunately, this is just a weekly update and we will get a full month of data in tomorrow’s March Employment report.

The weekly unemployment figures are not what is driving the markets this morning. They are responding to President Trump’s speech last night on national television regarding the progress with Iran. His words did little to calm the markets, specifically about how and when the conflict would end. It is apparent that traders were looking for a clearer plan to ending the war and when the Strait of Hormuz will be open again. Oil prices moved higher after his speech and remain elevated this morning. Bonds and stock futures showed losses during overnight trading as a result also. Bonds were able to recover that weakness before mortgage rates were posted this morning, but stocks are still in negative ground.

Tomorrow brings us the almighty monthly governmental Employment report at 8:30 AM ET. This report will give us March information such as the U.S. unemployment rate, the number of new jobs added or lost during the month and the average hourly earnings change. The best combination for the bond market and mortgage rates would be an increase in the unemployment rate, a much smaller payroll number than expected and little or no increase in earnings. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.1% increase from February's unemployment rate of 4.4%, approximately 55,000 new jobs added to the economy and a 0.3% rise in earnings. Stronger than expected readings should lead to bond weakness and an increase in mortgage rates tomorrow morning.

The bond market will close at noon ET tomorrow in observance of the Good Friday holiday, allowing lenders that are open for business to issue new rates based on the results of the Employment report. Stocks will be closed the entire day tomorrow. All markets will reopen for regular trading hours Monday morning.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.